321
FXUS65 KFGZ 302029
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
129 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY TYPICAL FALL WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DELIVER GUSTY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER.
DISCUSSION
A MAINLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ARIZONA AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRUSH ARIZONA TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY
DELIVERING GUSTY WINDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AREA THROUGH AROUND 6:00 PM MST BEFORE HEADING OUT OF THE AREA.
THE SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH FOLLOWING
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD LEAVING
BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WINDS OF
5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING SEASONABLY
CHILLY.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONGER BUT
MAINLY DRY TROUGH BRUSHING THE STATE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE LEANING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 30
TO 40 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN
LINGERING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THE
TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE AND STRONGER UPWARD
DYNAMICS. AT THIS TIME, THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WHERE A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, FAIR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS SET TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 30/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 01/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE ALONG AND NW OF
KGCN-KPGA LINE. WINDS ARE SW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS, THEN
LIGHT AND VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 03/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE SW 5-15 KTS EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT AND VRB OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM RH 20-
35%. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 5-15
MPH EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, THEN
COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH, THEN LIGHTER WINDS 5-15
MPH ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM RH IS BETWEEN 15-30% EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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