356
FXUS65 KFGZ 011646
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER-WISE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN INTO A
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 2-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND
A CONTINUED DRYING TREND.
A SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING PATTERN RESUMES ON FRIDAY, WHERE A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE AZ/UT BORDER. WINDS LOOK TO BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM, WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS MAY REACH NEAR 40 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL SWING TO OUR NORTH AND MOVE
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO
BE ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. NOT ONLY WILL WE SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS,
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TAKE A QUICK DIP LANDING NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
SUNDAY ONWARD...WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SET UP
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF OUR CWA IN A BREEZY PATTERN
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR EASTERN BORDER. FOR
NOW, PRESSURE GRADIENTS DON'T LOOK TO BE AS TIGHT AS WE'LL SEE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT BREEZY SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
NONETHELESS.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 02/18Z
VFR
EXPECTED. SW WINDS 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS THROUGH 02Z, THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 02/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/18Z...VFR EXPECTED.
S-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS ON THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-40 KTS ON FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EACH DAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING 2-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-
30%. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-30%.
LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 15-25 MPH GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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