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FXUS65 KFGZ 020355
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION FRIDAY, WITH THE
TROUGH CROSSING OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING FOR FRIDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LOW WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY, AND IN
ADVANCE OF ITS EASTWARD PUSH, WE WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
START TO TIGHTEN UP IN OUR AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 25-35 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. WINDS GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 MPH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE COCONINO PLATEAU
FOR FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE RESULTANT TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST,
AND THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL MOVE OFF INTO NEW MEXICO WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS TOWARD THE STATE LINE. IN ADDITION TO
THE GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SLIGHT DIP AS SOME COLDER
AIR IS MOVED INTO THE STATE. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SOME
SMALL CHANCES A SHOWER MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER.
ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST, ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL DRY
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND START TO WARM. A SERIES OF
WEAK TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHOWERS BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
SOME BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE GRADIENT DOESN'T FULLY
RELAX.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 02/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 03/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTH AT 5-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 03/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 05/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOK FOR
SOUTH WINDS AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 30-40 KTS AREA WIDE. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN FEATURES, WHERE GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY STRONG WINDS SHIFT EASTWARD, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A KFLG-FOUR CORNERS LINE.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS (10-20%) AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BORDER ON FRIDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH ON THURSDAY, INCREASING TO
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-30% ON THURSDAY,
INCREASING TO 20-40% ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (10-20%) ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
15-25 MPH ON SATURDAY, THEN 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-30%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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