639
FXUS65 KFGZ 021653
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND TODAY
AND TOMORROW, BEFORE COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER. MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY, RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS 2-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHER
THAN WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY TOO.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS ARIZONA AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS (35-45 MPH). STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE COCONINO PLATEAU,
SO WE'VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CORRESPONDING ZONES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COULD CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR TRUCKS/TRAILERS, AND ANY OUTSIDE HALLOWEEN
DECORATIONS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND IF NOT SECURED. THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE, BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG
THE AZ/UT BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AREN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TO AREAS NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. AFTERWARDS,
WE'LL FIND OURSELVES UNDER ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH PATTERN. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE CREEP INTO THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 02/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 03/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO
20KTS TODAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 05/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS, NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW 15-25KTS, GUSTS TO 40KTS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SW 10-15KTS, GUSTS 20-25KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS 30-35KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SW 10-15KTS, GUSTS 20KTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE 15-30% TODAY, BECOMING 20-40% ON FRIDAY. THERE'S A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TOO. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-25% EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-25 MPH
ACROSS FAR EASTERN AZ AND 5-15 MPH ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-009-012-013-039-040.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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