244
FXUS65 KFGZ 022331
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
431 PM MST THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS. MILDER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPENING LOW TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM DAYS OF LATE AND BRING
IN SOME COOLER AIR, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
AS THE LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE A TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCUR, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, AND A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FROM 11 AM MST-7 PM MST, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE LOW IS ABLE TO DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME MOISTURE TO SNEAK IN ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND THIS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA, MAINLY TOWARDS THE NEW MEXICO AND UTAH BORDERS.
SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WITH THE WARM
AIR STILL IN PLACE AND A STRONG JET MOVING THROUGH, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR SATURDAY, THE LOW CROSSES THE REGION WITH THE BEST WINDS
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. SOME STRONG WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35
MPH ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SOME AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE.
ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
DRY UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND AND WARM. A SERIES OF
WEAK TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK
AS A TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AROUND, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS
BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TOWARDS MIDWEEK. BREEZY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT DOESN'T FULLY RELAX.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 03/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST. LOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS THROUGH 02Z, TURNING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 40
KTS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 04/00Z THROUGH MONDAY 06/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY AT 20-30 KTS, PRIMARILY DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN
FEATURES. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25
KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS EAST OF A KFLG-FOUR CORNERS LINE. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS 5-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE SET FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY,
DROPPING TO 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-40% ON FRIDAY AND 15-25%
SATURDAY. THERE'S A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL. WINDS SW 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON FRIDAY, 15-25 MPH, GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WARMING TO AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-25%
EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-009-012-013-015-039-040.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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