784
FXUS65 KFGZ 032051
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
152 PM MST FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT WINDS AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DECREASE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, WITH A SEASONABLE AND DRY WEEKEND COMING UP.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WINDY CONDITIONS.
THIS TROUGH ALSO PULLED UP SOME MOISTURE INTO EASTERN ARIZONA AND
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. ANY REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE IN NEW MEXICO BY NIGHTFALL.
THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND OUR GRADIENTS BASICALLY
COLLAPSE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAR
LESS WIND A A RESULT.
NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT FAIRLY INNOCUOUS, JUST A TYPICAL BREEZY AND
SEASONABLY WARM FALL PATTERN. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY OR SO, THINGS
START TO GET INTERESTING. SOLUTIONS NOW HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP WEST COAST
TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AT LEAST ONE HURRICANE, MAYBE TWO. AT THE
VERY LEAST, IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SLUG OF SUB-TROICAL MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAGGED NORTH, IF NOT REMNANTS OF A STORM, OR BOTH. WE ARE A
WAYS OUT STILL, BUT IT MAY BE TIME TO START THINKING THAT DAYS 5
OR 6 ONWARD WILL BE QUITE STORMY.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. WINDS SW 20-30KTS, GUSTS TO 40KTS, LIGHTENING UP
TO SW 10-20KTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 04/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 06/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DAYTIME WINDS SW-W 15-25KTS, GUSTS
30-35KTS SATURDAY, LOWERING TO SW 10-20KTS SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE 15-25% BOTH DAYS. WINDS SW-W
15-25 MPH, GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON SATURDAY, SW 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE MONDAY, WARMING TO AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-25%
EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007-009-012-013-015-039-040.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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