188
FXUS65 KFGZ 050845
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
145 AM MST SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY, CHECK YOUR
LOCAL FORECAST FOR DETAILS. EXPECT FAIR AND GRADUALLY WARMER
AFTERNOONS THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS BY
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING,
LEAVING BEHIND A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. A PERIOD OF PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER, REACHING NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET
AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR PLACES LIKE WINSLOW AND ST JOHNS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE TODAY BUT GRADUALLY WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO START SHIFTING WESTWARD CLOSER TO OUR
AREA, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IN FAR EASTERN ARIZONA
AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF APACHE COUNTY.
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND - FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN, THE RIDGE SHIFTING EVEN
FARTHER WEST AND THE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS
PLACES ARIZONA IN ENHANCED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS
EXPECTED TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM <0.30" EARLY THIS WEEK TO
0.80"-1.00" BY FRIDAY. THERE IS SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THOUGH, WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE CLOSER TO 1.00"-1.40" SHOWING A
CHANCE AT FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS. THE MODEL VARIABILITY SEEMS TO
RESULT FROM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM PRISCILLA THAT THE NHC FORECASTS TO BE JUST SW OF
THE BAJA SPUR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, OUR POPS ARE NEAR
20% THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 30-40% FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE'LL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED
NORTHWARD AS THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 05/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 06/06Z
EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, BECOMING SW 5-15 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS AFTER 18Z.
WIND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 06/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 08/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW 5-15 KTS, GUSTS 20-25 KTS
EACH DAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20%.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, THEN INCREASING TO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. DAYTIME WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH AROUND 15-
25%, RISING TO AROUND 25-35% ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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