660
FXUS65 KFGZ 190520
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND WET CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
WILL SNEAK IN BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY HAVE
BEEN MAXIMIZED ALONG/WEST OF I-17 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL
YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE MONDAY ARE IN THE
1.00" TO 2.50" RANGE, WITH MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BRING THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. YAVAPAI COUNTY
STILL LOOKS FAVORED FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN, WITH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2+ INCHES ESPECIALLY
OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. THE
LATEST FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR 8000 FEET THROUGH MID
DAY WEDNESDAY, THEN VALUES GRADUALLY DROP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. SO BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SNOW DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FT LEVEL WHICH WOULD
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF I-40 (WILLIAMS TO EAST FLAGSTAFF) AND I-17
(FLAGSTAFF TO AROUND MUNDS PARK). BY THIS TIME, MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER. OUR LATEST FORECASTS CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET, MOSTLY IN
THE HALF TO 2 INCH RANGE AND AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER PARTS OF THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU, SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS, AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 4-8"+ BUT THESE ARE MOSTLY HIGHER THAN THE
POPULATED AREAS. OUR CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE GETTING MOVED EAST OUT
OF OUR AREA DUE TO AN UPSTREAM LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MUCH OF THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA TAKE THIS LOW
PRETTY FAR SOUTH, INTO NORTHERN BAJA FRI/SAT BEFORE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD BY SUNDAY. THUS THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ARE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA, BUT WE'LL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. CURRENT POPS ARE 20-40%, FAVORING I-40
SOUTH.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 19/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 20/06Z
WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/SHSN/TSRA/BR. SNOW
LEVELS RANGING FROM 6500-7500 KFT MSL IN THE HEAVIER OR PROLONGED
SHOWERS AND BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WORSE CONDITIONS WEST OF A
KPAN-KPGA LINE, VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES EAST OF THAT LINE, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SFC
WINDS WILL NOT IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS, EXCEPT NEAR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 20/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 22/06Z...EXPECT WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR THROUGH LATE THURSDAY DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/SHSN/TSRA/BR. AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION DO SPREAD EAST DURING THIS PERIOD, AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS VFR DEVELOPS AND SHOWERS DECREASE OR END. SFC WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING
TO 7500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 6500-7000 FEET BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS S-SW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH BOTH DAYS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
SNOW LEVEL 7000-8000FT. WINDS E-SE 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BECOMING N 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ008-037.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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