778
FXUS65 KFGZ 190840
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
140 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD REACH DOWN TO 6500 FEET.
DISCUSSION
NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS SEEN QUITE THE SPECTRUM OF
WEATHER OVER THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE MORE OF
THE SAME FOR TODAY AS WELL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL
THIS RUCKUS IS CURRENTLY CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. FROM HERE IT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD, REACHING THE CA/AZ
BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE STATE, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. LET'S GO AHEAD AND BREAK THIS DOWN BY
HAZARD...
RAIN...OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WE'VE SEEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FROM 0.01" TO 1.25" ALONG A GRAND CANYON-FLAGSTAFF-EAGAR LINE, AND
EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE VALUES
RANGED FROM 1" TO A LITTLE OVER 3". THE TOTALS ACROSS YAVAPAI
COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ARE STRICTLY FROM RAINFALL,
BUT A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ALSO INCLUDE MELTED
SNOWFALL. AND THE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO THURSDAY. GREATEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE WE COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 0.50" TO 1.25" OF LIQUID WATER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, SO PLEASE BE MINDFUL OF
FLOODED ROADWAYS! THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL CONTINUE FOR YAVAPAI
COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM MST TODAY. SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED BEYOND
THE EXPIRATION OF THIS PRODUCT, BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER.
SNOW...THIS IS CERTAINLY THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH
THE NBM OVERALL RUNNING TOO WARM. A GOOD AMOUNT OF EDITING WAS
MADE TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR WHERE SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO
BE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. WE
ANTICIPATE SNOW LEVELS TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 6500' TO 7000'
FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. EVEN
THOUGH WE STILL ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS
POPULATED AREAS, THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW REFLECTS 1 TO 3" OF NEW
SNOW BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AND WILLIAMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
STRETCH OF I-40 WILL LIKELY SEE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO SNOWFALL,
ALONG WITH I-17 BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AND MUNDS PARK. AS A RESULT, BE
SURE TO GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME ON YOUR MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTE TODAY. ALTHOUGH THESE UPDATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALIGN
BETTER WITH SOME OF THE HI- RES GUIDANCE, A HEAVIER SNOW BAND
COULD STILL SWEEP ACROSS PORTIONS OF I-40 AND I-17 AND PRODUCE
QUICK ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BEYOND OUR PREDICTED SNOW AMOUNTS.
IT'S ALWAYS BEST TO CHECK AZ511.COM BEFORE HITTING THE ROADS
DURING WINTERY MIX WEATHER, AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR
VEHICLE!
THUNDERSTORMS...GREATEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. BOTH CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK LOWER
OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THAT, WE COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT LIKELY DEALING MORE WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ON FRIDAY, WE MAY START TO DRY
OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SWINGING TOWARDS ARIZONA, BUT THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY. MAYBE WE'LL
SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT WE'LL KNOW
MORE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 19/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 20/06Z
WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/SHSN/TSRA/BR. SNOW
LEVELS RANGING FROM 6500-7500 KFT MSL IN THE HEAVIER OR PROLONGED
SHOWERS AND BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WORSE CONDITIONS WEST OF A
KPAN-KPGA LINE, VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES EAST OF THAT LINE, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SFC
WINDS WILL NOT IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS, EXCEPT NEAR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 20/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 22/06Z...EXPECT WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR THROUGH LATE THURSDAY DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/SHSN/TSRA/BR. AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION DO SPREAD EAST DURING THIS PERIOD, AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS VFR DEVELOPS AND SHOWERS DECREASE OR END. SFC WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7500 FEET THIS MORNING
THEN LOWERING TO 6500-7000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SOUTH AT
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH BOTH DAYS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVEL
RANGING FROM 7000-8000 FEET. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BECOMING NORTH AT 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ008-037.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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