425
FXUS65 KFGZ 192306
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
406 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN STORY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD REACH DOWN TO
6500 FEET.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR STORMY AND COLD
WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW
LEVELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 6500-7000 FT RANGE, THOUGH MEAGER
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR MOST ROADS TO MELT THROUGH THE
DAY. STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, WITH SOME FLOODING ALONG FOSSIL
CREEK AND SOME LOW-WATER CROSSINGS ALONG OAK CREEK ALSO IMPACTED
FROM OAK CREEK CANYON DOWN TO CORNVILLE. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, WE'RE SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH A
FEW HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED. SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP THROUGH
SUNSET LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL/WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 5 PM. AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE AGAIN FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ON ROADWAYS, MOSTLY ABOVE 6500 FEET SO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.
GENERALLY EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE FLAGSTAFF REGION UP TO
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO THURSDAY, THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE THE BRUNT
OF THE PRECIP WITH 0.25"-0.50" ADDITIONAL IN THE LATEST FORECAST.
THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-4" OF SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FEET, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY - OUR CURRENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AS AN UPSTREAM LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION. MOST
OF THE MODEL DATA TAKES THE NEXT LOW SOUTH INTO NORTHERN BAJA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TREND IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH
SINCE YESTERDAY, SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED.
THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST HAS 40-50% CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH VARIABILITY IN THE LOW TRACK
IMPACTING EVENTUAL SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, IT'S A
BIT TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ABOUT IMPACTS - BUT IT WOULD BE A
GOOD IDEA TO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS IF YOU HAVE
LATE WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 20/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 21/00Z
MVFR-LIFR
CONDITIONS. WDSPRD SHRA/SHSN THROUGH THROUGH 12-15Z, WITH SCT
SHRA/SHSN AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS,
BECOMING W/SW AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 21/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 23/00Z...ISO-SCT SHRA/SHSN IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH E/SE WINDS 5-10 KTS. LOCALLY GUSTY NE
WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOOK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE FIRST
STORM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 6000-7000
FEET THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS BUT THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH SO
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVEL
BETWEEN 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS W 5-15 MPH THURSDAY, SE 5-10 MPH
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY. SNOW LEVEL WILL RANGE BETWEEN 7000-
8000 FEET. THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY AS THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. WINDS E-SE 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY, N-NW AT 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ008-037.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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