413
FXUS65 KFGZ 201147
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
447 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, PRIMARILY
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. COLD AND NEARLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING US ALL THIS
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ BORDER. MOST
OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION BANDS ARE EAST OF I-17 AND HWY 89,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN AZ.
FRIDAY...A MINOR LULL IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AS ARIZONA WILL
FIND ITSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH FROM THIS WEEK,
AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW QUICKLY DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY ON FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY QUIET (BUT COLD) DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN WITH THIS INCOMING LOW.
INITIALLY, GUIDANCE WAS PROJECTING THIS DISTURBANCE TO TAKE A MUCH
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER. NOW THE LOW IS
BEING SHOWN TURNING RIGHT UP TOWARDS AZ AND PUSHING TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY KEEP PERSISTENT SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A
WARMER SYSTEM, WHERE SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
7500 AND 8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK EXCITING, OUTSIDE OF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000' POTENTIALLY SEEING 3-6". A VERY
LIGHT DUSTING COULD BE SEEN ACROSS MORE POPULATED AREAS
(FLAGSTAFF, BELLEMONT, FORT VALLEY).
NEXT WEEK...ONCE THIS SECONDARY LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME OUR MAIN
WEATHER STORY.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 20/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 21/12Z
MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN THROUGH THROUGH 15Z, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WINDS VARIABLE AT 5-10 KTS EARLY, BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 18Z THEN DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
01Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 21/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 23/12Z...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WITH LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS,
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
AROUND 6000-7000 FEET TODAY. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM APPROACHES BUT
WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7500 FEET ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH TODAY, EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 5-10 MPH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY THEN SPREADING AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 7000-8000 FEET. DRYING OUT MONDAY AS THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY,
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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