027
FXUS65 KFGZ 210943
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
243 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. OUR
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
IT'S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH LOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS PERSISTING WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH COPIOUS SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA JUST REACHING INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY SATURDAY (TO A POINT WEST
OF NORTHERN BAJA), LEAVING NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH COOL AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING, BUT THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESSIVELY PUSH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER AZ. SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN MOJAVE COUNTY MAY CLIP
WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TODAY, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR.
AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM (MODELS INDICATE 700MB
TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C BY SATURDAY EVENING), LIKELY RAISING THE
SNOW LEVEL TO 8000' OR GREATER.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FALLING SNOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (< 1") DOWN TO 6500-7000'. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS
ARE FAVORING THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM WITH THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS, WITH ABOUT 0.3 TO 0.7"
FORECAST.
THE PROVESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS, BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
AND SNOW LEVELS. REASONABLE 'WORST-CASE' SCENARIOS AT THIS TIME
COULD BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW DOWN TO 6500-7000' (AND
RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE RIM EXCEEDING 1.5") BY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF THESE AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN 10%
AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING TO THE EXTENDED, MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 21/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 22/06Z
PATCHY FG/BR AND
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 05Z-15Z. WINDS VRB 5-
10 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING E/SE AFTER 17Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 22/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 24/06Z...SCT-WDSPRD RA/SN
WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EACH DAY. WINDS E/NE 5-10
KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING W/SW ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM TAKES AN
INITIAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HOOKS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES BACK NORTHWARD. WINDS E-SE 5-10 MPH
FRIDAY, NE-SE 5-10 MPH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON
ON SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM 7000-8000 FEET. STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THINGS DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WIND W-NW 5-10 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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