992
FXUS65 KFGZ 220456
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET. MILD AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED WEST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS. ONE CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED WEST OF LAS VEGAS, WITH SOME LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO WESTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING YAVAPAI AND WESTERN
COCONINO COUNTY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED, WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7000 FEET.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
THE SECOND CIRCULATION, CENTERED AROUND 400 MILES WEST OF SAN
DIEGO, WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT ONE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOKS
LIKE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO START A NORTHEASTWARD TREK ACROSS ARIZONA THAT WILL
LAST INTO SUNDAY. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD THE PAST
FEW MODEL CYCLES, AND IS NOW RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. THIS HAS CAUSED SNOW LEVELS TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL
FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, AS LOW AS ABOUT 7000 FEET. THIS
OF COURSE MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SNOW AT THE ELEVATION
OF FLAGSTAFF AND PARTS OF I-40/I-17. FOR NOW, PLAN ON SOME MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW OF UP TO AN INCH OR TWO, THOUGH IF THINGS TREND COLDER
AGAIN THESE AMOUNTS MAY COME UP. IF YOU'RE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND
THE REGION ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, BE
PREPARED FOR SOME SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. HEADS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND AFTER THANKSGIVING - UNSETTLED/COLDER WEATHER MAY
RETURN SO CHECK BACK WITH US IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 22/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 23/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE 01Z, WITH CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATING IN SCT-WDSPRD RA/SN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NE-SE 5-10 KTS AFTER 16Z.
OCCASIONAL LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 16Z.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 23/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 25/06Z...SCT-WDSPRD RA/SN
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY, WITH ISO-SCT ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH 03Z
MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FG POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 16Z
MONDAY. WINDS W/SW 5-10 KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING W/NW ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS RANGE FROM 7000-8000 FEET. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH ON
SATURDAY, THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
LOOK FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY, BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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