995
FXUS65 KFGZ 220824
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
124 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. MILD AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LIKELY CENTERING OVER THE AZ/MEXICO
BORDER BY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURFACE ACROSS THE STATE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO ~7000 FEET
AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, CREATING POTENTIALLY SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF YOU'RE TRAVELING
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS I-40 BETWEEN WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF, AND/OR
I-17 BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AND MUNDS PARK, IT MIGHT BE WISE TO GIVE
YOURSELF A FEW EXTRA MINUTES. SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY
MINIMAL WITH ONLY ABOUT 0.5-2" FORECAST ACROSS POPULATED AREAS.
AREAS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD SEE 3-10" OF NEW SNOW FALL.
MONDAY ONWARD...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWING OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS LOW, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BECOMING NEAR-NORMAL TO
ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY!
IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THANKSGIVING. A
LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL
THAT WEEKEND, I WOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 22/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 23/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE 01Z, WITH CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATING IN SCT-WDSPRD RA/SN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NE-SE 5-10 KTS AFTER 16Z.
OCCASIONAL LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 16Z.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 23/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 25/06Z...SCT-WDSPRD RA/SN
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY, WITH ISO-SCT ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH 03Z
MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FG POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 16Z
MONDAY. WINDS W/SW 5-10 KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING W/NW ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 11 AM MST TODAY, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET. NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS
10-20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK. LOOK FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY,
AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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