757
FXUS65 KFGZ 222102
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
202 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS MOISTURE INCREASES, WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS WITH TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25-0.75", WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT A TON OF
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE INCREASE IN QPF, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERPRODUCING CELLS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS EVENT ARE AROUND
7000-8000 FEET, AND WITH THE INCREASE IN QPF AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES, SNOW TOTALS HAVE RISEN JUST A SMIDGE. AROUND
0.5-3.0" OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORE POPULATED AREAS
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM LOOK TO BE DRIER AS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10-
0.30" STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
RIM.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL OVERNIGHT SO IF YOU ARE TRAVELING, BE AWARE OF
CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE TRAVELING TO AREAS
AROUND 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. EVEN THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THE
WET ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK SO TAKE CARE ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FOR MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
AREA ON MONDAY, CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. IN GENERAL, THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE FALL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK TROUGH OFF OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND BUT APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. THE GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE STORM SO PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. BUT IF YOU ARE TRAVELING AFTER THE
HOLIDAY, IT MAY BE BEST TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 22/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 23/18Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z, THEN DECREASING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AFTERWARDS WITH SHRA/SHSN. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING AROUND 00Z. WINDS ARE E-NE 5-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 23/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 25/18Z...SHRA/SHSN
DECLINE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 02Z MONDAY, THEN LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER. W-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, BECOMING W-NW
5-10 KTS ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SET IN FOR MONDAY. WINDS
ARE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST 5-15 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE NORTH 5-10 MPH ON TUESDAY BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH GENERALLY ABOVE 25%
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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