664
FXUS65 KFGZ 242122
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
222 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TODAY AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OF
THE PREVIOUS WEEK, WE FIND OURSELVES IN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS SET IN ALOFT AS A
TROUGH EJECTS TO OUR EAST AND WE TRANSITION TO A RIDGE. DRY AIR IS
ALREADY PREVALENT IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS, BUT DECENT SURFACE
HUMIDITY STILL LINGERS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE PREVALENT ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ THIS MORNING, AND LOCAL PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB A LITTLE EACH DAY. BY THURSDAY WE SEE DAYTIME HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS, PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE DECLINES A BIT BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND PUTS A HALT ON THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS HIGH MODEL SPREAD ON HOW THE 500MB PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (PARTICULARLY ENS MEMBERS) FAVOR A SCENARIO WHERE
RIDGING REMAINS STRONGER ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND WE GET A MORE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OTHER MEMBERS FAVOR A SCENARIO WHERE THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND A DEEP LOW DIVES IN TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER IMPACTFUL TO WEEKEND
TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST IN THE UPCOMING DAYS IF
YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS.
AVIATION...MONDAY 24/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 25/18Z
MAINLY VFR.
PATCHY MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN LOW CIGS AND BR/FG UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 25/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 27/18Z...VFR EXPECTED.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS TUESDAY, BECOMING VARIABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH ON TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH 25-45% TUESDAY, THEN 20-40%
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THURSDAY, THEN SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH ABOVE 20% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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