360
FXUS65 KFGZ 011140
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
440 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS THROUGH TODAY AND FINALLY
TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HIGH AND ABOVE 9000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO DROP
TONIGHT AND FALL TO NEAR 8000 FEET. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME WE SEE THAT
HAPPEN, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
ON FRIDAY, THE REMNANT MOISTURE LOOKS TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF INT EH
MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PETERING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE
WILL HAVE THE WARM TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WE START TO SEE A SHIFT AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE STATE,
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONE DIFFERENCE NEXT
WEEK IS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEMS, WHICH SEEMS TO BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH/WEST INSTEAD OF OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL HELP TO
BRING IN COOLER AIR AND WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER SO WE MAY
HAVE MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW THAN WE HAVE HAD WITH RECENT SYSTEMS.
WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...THURSDAY 01/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 02/12Z
MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN TERMINALS) TODAY. NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 00Z-06Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, S-SW 5-10KTS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 02/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/12Z...MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN TERMINALS) THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY, IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR 18Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE 18Z
FRIDAY, DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN 18Z
FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY, BECOMING DRY AREA WIDE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
AND REMAINING DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS SW-W 10-15KTS FRIDAY,
S-SW 5-10KTS SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, OVER 10,000
FEET INITIALLY, THEN LOWERING TOWARDS 8,500-9,000 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ALONG/WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. WINDS
TODAY S-SW 5-15 MPH, THEN SW-W 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 17. WINDS ARE S 5-
10 MPH ON SATURDAY, BECOMING S-SW 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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