334
FXUS65 KFGZ 011747
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1047 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS THROUGH TODAY AND FINALLY
TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HIGH AND ABOVE 9000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO DROP
TONIGHT AND FALL TO NEAR 8000 FEET. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME WE SEE THAT
HAPPEN, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
ON FRIDAY, THE REMNANT MOISTURE LOOKS TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF INT EH
MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PETERING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE
WILL HAVE THE WARM TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WE START TO SEE A SHIFT AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE STATE,
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONE DIFFERENCE NEXT
WEEK IS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEMS, WHICH SEEMS TO BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH/WEST INSTEAD OF OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL HELP TO
BRING IN COOLER AIR AND WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER SO WE MAY
HAVE MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW THAN WE HAVE HAD WITH RECENT SYSTEMS.
WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...THURSDAY 01/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 02/18Z
MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA AND FG. PERIODS
OF LIFR VIS AND CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KFLG-KGCN-KSEZ, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 02Z-07Z AS ANOTHER PUSH OF SCATTERED -SHRA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY AFTER
12Z-15Z. PLAN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS, 5-15 KTS, THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 02/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/18Z...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH CLEARING CLOUD COVER AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VARIABLE
BETWEEN SCT-BKN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, BUT ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, 5-15 KTS, ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY AND A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS, 10-20 KTS, ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, OVER 10,000
FEET INITIALLY, THEN LOWERING TOWARDS 8,500-9,000 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ALONG/WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. WINDS
TODAY S-SW 5-15 MPH, THEN SW-W 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 17. WINDS ARE S 5-
10 MPH ON SATURDAY, BECOMING S-SW 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...LAGUARDIA
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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