245
FXUS65 KFGZ 020504
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1004 PM MST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT CONTAINS WEAK DYNAMICS FOR LARGE-SCALE
LIFT AND ONLY MODEST TERRAIN INDUCED UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT,
LOOK FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WITH GENERAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO 0.20 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. ALSO, THE MILD SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS, RANGING FROM 9,000-10,000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT, PERHAPS LOWERING TO THE 8,000-9000 FOOT LEVEL ON FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THE MILD SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIR MASS THE
SATURATED LAYER WILL MAINLY BE MADE UP OF SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPS
NOT ICE CRYSTALS. SO, ANY SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
FLEETING AND MOSTLY DUE TO VERY LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE
TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD LATER ON FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS AND, MOST LIKELY, DRY WEATHER BY FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WEATHER. LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPINS OFF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SLIDE
INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCE.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD...LOOK FOR A WEEK OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRIZZLY, LIGHT RAIN
DAY. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM A PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION PROVIDING SOME
HOPE FOR LOWER SNOW LEVELS. AT THIS TIME, A FEW SOLUTIONS ARE
DEVELOPING A DECENT SNOW STORM FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA LATER NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ANY EVENT, A
BIT MORE WINTER APPROPRIATE WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 02/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 03/06Z
MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z DUE TO -SHRA AND FG.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT KFLG, KGCN,
AND KSEZ UNTIL 09Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH WEST 5-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 03/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-15
KTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY ALONG UPSLOPE REGIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, 5 TO 15 MPH.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, UNDER 10 MPH, RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY,
COOLING GRADUALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURN ON MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS, PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, 10 TO 20
MPH, BECOMING LIGHTER ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...LAGUARDIA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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