876
FXUS65 KFGZ 021656
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS
THE STATE.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT MILD AND MOIST
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AZ DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS IS CURRENTLY
WEAKENING WHILE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANY MODEST DYNAMIC LIFT IS
QUICKLY MOVING PAST OUR REGION AND BEING REPLACED WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT AND SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS. THIS MORNING WILL SEE THE
LOWEST SNOW LEVELS OF THE EVENT, REACHING AS LOW AS 7500-8500 FT.
HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER, IT WILL
GENERALLY BE TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM WITHIN THE CLOUD
FOR MOST HIGH ELEVATION SITES. THAT BEING SAID, A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG THE KAIBAB PLATEAU ABOVE 7500 FT STILL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THIS MORNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO MOSTLY DIMINISH BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD WHILE TROUGHING LOOMS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. SATURDAY WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS, SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER, AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY, THERE
IS ALREADY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO RETURN AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE GRAZES BY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SERIES OF TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH
CONSIDERABLE DEVIATIONS AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS ARE BRINGING A MORE NOTABLE SNOW EVENT BY LATE
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST!
AVIATION...FRIDAY 02/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 03/18Z
AREAS OF MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR IN BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 20Z OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FT
ELEVATION), WITH OTHERWISE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 02Z, PATCHY BR/FG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO
THESE SAME AREAS, AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS OF
YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES AS WELL. SW TO W WINDS 10-20 KTS THROUGH
01Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 03/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY, THEN AREAS MVFR DEVELOPING AND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED -SHRA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND MIXING WITH SNOW ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS SATURDAY INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS FROM THE SW
ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
DAYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, TURNING
MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, PRIMARILY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 7,000 TO 8,000
FEET. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH
EACH DAY. A COLDER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK THAT
COULD LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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