131
FXUS65 KFGZ 022304
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
404 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
MILD TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK, LOOK FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A TURN TOWARD WINTRY WEATHER WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW AS SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
THE MOST RECENT WEATHER SYSTEM WAS HEADING EASTWARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WEATHER MORE FITTING OF WINTER DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED GROUND
FROM RECENT RAINS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA WILL BE WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL OCCURRED WHICH WILL BE ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
LIGHT WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE LOW
TEMPERATURES.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FAIR WEATHER ARRIVES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY BUT STRENGTHENING TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES ARIZONA. JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
PRESCOTT TO FLAGSTAFF LINE.
FOR MONDAY...THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THE DYNAMICS FOR LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT
CONTAIN SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT FOR A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW/LIMITED WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10
INCHES OR LESS. THE SNOW LEVEL (CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
7,500-8,500 FEET) WILL BE TRICKY SINCE THE TOP OF THE SATURATED
CLOUD BARING LAYER WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BUT COULD CONTAIN MAINLY
SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPS. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
RIME ICE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED DUE TO THE PASSING TROUGH AND A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. WHAT SEEMS CLEAR IS THAT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WINTRY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
SNOW/PRECIPITATION. A FAIR NUMBER OF MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
A COLD TROUGH DIGGING INTO NEVADA BEFORE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS
SOLUTION TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WOULD CONTAIN STRONGER
DYNAMICS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE AND HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, MANY OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER EAST INTO UTAH, NOT TAPPING AS
MUCH MOISTURE AND MOVING OUT MORE QUICKLY. THIS SOLUTION PRODUCES
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE AND LESS RAINFALL. WE'LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO LIVE WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN
EITHER CASE, THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 6,000-7,000 FEET ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN DROPPING AS LOW AS 4,500-5,500 FEET FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.
OR
AVIATION...SATURDAY 03/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BR/FG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02Z-08Z. PRIMARY LOCATIONS
FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE KGCN, KFLG,
KSEZ, AND KPRC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST UNTIL 18Z, WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS RETURN.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 04/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z, BUT AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD, MOSTLY FOCUSING ON HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KICK OFF THE PERIOD, TURNING S-SW
AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 15Z. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORMS COULD REACH UP TO
30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED HUMIDITY.
THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY. LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY. SNOW LEVELS 7000-8000 FEET MONDAY,
6000-7000 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH EACH DAY. A COLDER STORM SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK THAT COULD LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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