769
FXUS65 KFGZ 031212
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
512 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MOISTURE, UNFORTUNATELY, IS NOT ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS
AND WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH WEATHER. A WEAK S/WV ON MONDAY MAY WRING
OUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS, WITH ANOTHER DUE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK MAY BE A BIT MORE MEANINGFUL AND WILL CONTAIN
COLDER AIR, HOWEVER, THERE IS LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AT THIS TIME.
IN SUMMARY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH AREAS OF HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE DAY, SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP, BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG. CHANCES OF RAIN AND
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY DO NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL. WE WILL
WATCH THE SECOND SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 03/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/12Z
LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BR/FG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPACTS PRIMARILY
SEEN AT KFLG AND KGCN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SOME
CLOUDS ABOVE 15,000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE S-SW 5-15 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z,
LIGHT AND VRB OTHERWISE.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 04/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-SHSN
ARRIVE AFTERWARDS, PEAKING FROM 06Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY
ALONG/WEST OF A KGCN-KFLG-KPAN LINE. WINDS ARE SW AT 10-20 KTS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIKELY STAYING ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OTHERWISE.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED HUMIDITY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BY
LATE SUNDAY. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS ON SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. SNOW LEVELS 7000-8000 FEET MONDAY AND
6000-7000 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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