854
FXUS65 KFGZ 032110
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK AS A
COLDER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
THE BROAD, SLOW MOVING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND BRING AREAS OF UPSLOPE-
GENERATED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE PRIMARY DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL
ONLY BRING VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF PRECIPITATION (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.1"), WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE
7000' THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE REACHED CONSENSUS WITH HAVING THE PRIMARY LOBE OF THE
TROUGH SPLITTING OFF AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY, AND THEN SWINGING IT (AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION) SOUTH
OF ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MODEL MEMBERS (~50%) ARE INDICATING
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN THE REMAINING NW FLOW LATE WED OR EARLY
THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CONSIDERABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THIS
DYNAMIC SITUATION, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK (BUT LEANING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE), WITH A
GREATER CERTAINTY OF COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRIMARY IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE,
AND AREAS OF FOG LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GREATER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
WEATHER.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/18Z
LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BR/FG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 19Z WITH IMPACTS
PRIMARILY SEEN AT KPRC AND WEST OF KGCN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS NEAR 15,000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE
S-SW 5-15 KTS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING, LIGHT AND VRB OTHERWISE.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 04/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/18Z...EXPECT LOWERING
CLOUD BASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE, FOG, AND/OR -SHRA/-SHSN WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS START SUNDAY EVENING, PEAKING FROM 06Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY ALONG/WEST OF A KGCN-KFLG-KPAN LINE. PATCHES OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE SW AT
10-20 KTS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIKELY STAYING ELEVATED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OTHERWISE.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, THEN TURNING COOLER MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED ELEVATED HUMIDITY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 30-50%
MONDAY WEST OF A PAGE-PAYSON LINE. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MOSTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW
LEVELS 6000-7000 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, 5000-6000 FEET
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-15 MPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WEST 10-20 MPH THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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