301
FXUS65 KFGZ 041755
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1055 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SUN EACH DAY HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. THEN, COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD DEVELOP LATER
NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH A VERY
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, BUT THE MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW. THIS LEAVES US IN A REGIME
THAT IS BASICALLY DRY, BUT THE ADDED WEAK DYNAMICS ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF
COCONINO AND YAVPAI COUNTIES, DOUBTFUL ANY MOISTURE WILL MAKE OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM OR KAIBAB PLATEAU.
WE THEN ENTER A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
NORTHERN ARIZONA SITTING IN THE MIDDLE. THE THOUGHTS OF MOISTURE AND
SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING THURSDAY ARE FADING, BUT NOT GONE YET. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR FOR ARIZONA, BUT THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A COLD AIR MASS
AND SOME SHOWERS. MODELS ARE NOT IN ACQUIREMENT ON THIS, SOME HAVE
THE NORTHERN SPLIT STAYING PROGRESSIVE AND JUST GRAZING THE REGION.
SOME HAVE THE NORTHERN TROUGH UNDERGOING BRIEF CYCLOGENESIS, SLOWING
DOWN AND DELIVERING A BIT OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 04/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/18Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF DZ/FG/BR DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS -SHRA/SHSN MAY DEVELOP AFTER
04Z, PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF KGCN. WINDS GENERALLY SW
10-20KTS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 05/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/18Z...AREAS MVFR-
IFR CIGS WITH DZ/FG/BR ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AREAS MVFR CIGS
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE S-SW 10-20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY, TURNING COOLER MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED HUMIDITY.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, PRIMARILY WEST OF A PAGE-PAYSON LINE.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, INCLUDING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MOSTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW
LEVELS 6000-7000 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN 5000-6000 FEET
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST 5-15 MPH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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