197
FXUS65 KFGZ 050518
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1018 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU, WITH
ANY SNOW STAYING MOSTLY ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY
FORECAST TO BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET DEEP, SO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IN NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH 20-30 KTS OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MOIST LAYER, THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME
AREAS OF FOG. DOWNSLOPE OR VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE LOWER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WITH AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 7000-7500 FT
MONDAY, WITH ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION PROBABLY LIMITED TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO PEAKS AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE NORTHERN BAJA, WHILE ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY FOR OUR REGION.
THERE IS MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING A
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE, WITH SOME FARTHER
NORTH RESULTING IN LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA AND OTHERS FARTHER
SOUTH BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SOME OF THE COLDER/FARTHER SOUTH RUNS
HAVE SOME IMPACTFUL SNOW DOWN TO AT LEAST 6000 FEET BUT THIS IS
LESS THAN 20% OF MEMBERS, MOSTLY FROM THE EC. FOR NOW, THE BLENDED
FORECAST KEEPS POP VALUES IN THE 30-50% RANGE, PEAKING ON THURSDAY.
IT WOULD BE BEST TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS IF YOU HAVE
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, MUCH
DRIER AIR AND FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
ARE DOWN AROUND 0.10" WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WITH THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THIS DRY AIR, THIS COULD
DELIVER THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON
(WHICH ISN'T SAYING MUCH AS IT HAS BEEN A MUCH WARMER THAN USUAL
WINTER SO FAR).
AVIATION...MONDAY 05/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/06Z
MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED MOVING IN TO MOST TAF SITES, BUT VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LIKELY, PRIMARILY ALONG A KPAN- KFLG- KGCN LINE. A
WINTERY MIX IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY DOWN TO 7000' FEET. LOOK
FOR SOUTH THROUGH WEST WINDS 10-20 KTS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR
25-30 KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 06/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/06Z...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 18Z WEDNESDAY FROM
-SHRA/-SHSN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS ARE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED HUMIDITY WITH SCATTERED DRIZZLE, LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH KAIBAB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 25-50% CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS 6000-7000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY
DROPPING TO 5000-6500 FEET THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BECOME WESTERLY 10-20MPH THURSDAY, AND TURNING TO THE NORTH 10-20MPH
ON FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...BAK
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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