265
FXUS65 KFGZ 050930
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
KAIBAB PLATEAU. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DEW POINTS AND
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING OVER ARIZONA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS, ALONG WITH SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT, DUE TO A NEARLY
IMPERCEPTIBLE S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW ARIZONA. SOME VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS A RESULT. WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS, BEFORE DRYING OUT LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATURATION DOES NOT EXIST IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE
AND WE EXPECT ALMOST ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN, WITH A FEW
PELLETS UP ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET. IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL TO NONE.
A S/WV RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS S/WV TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS A CUT OFF LOW SPLITS AND DROPS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE EXPECT COOLING, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, AS
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS FALL.
THE CUT OFF LOW THEN WAITS FOR UPSTREAM ENERGY BEFORE MOVING
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPSTREAM ENERGY THEN SPLITS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
SENDS A FAST MOVING SW/V INTO ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND THE COLDER AIR AND
FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE KEY TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS A BIT MORE ROBUST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS RUNS AND POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL HAVE ALL BEEN BUMPED UP A BIT.
CONFIDENCE NOW AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR A LOWER END, BUT IMPACTFUL
BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER ON THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...MONDAY 05/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/06Z
MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED MOVING IN TO MOST TAF SITES, BUT VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LIKELY, PRIMARILY ALONG A KPAN- KFLG- KGCN LINE. A
WINTERY MIX IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY DOWN TO 7000' FEET. LOOK
FOR SOUTH THROUGH WEST WINDS 10-20 KTS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR
25-30 KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 06/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/06Z...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 18Z WEDNESDAY FROM
-SHRA/-SHSN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS ARE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
ALONG/WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. NO PRECIPITATION
ON TUESDAY, BUT HUMIDITY LINGERS. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH
ON MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS 6000-7000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY
DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING WEST 10-20 MPH ON THURSDAY, THEN NORTH 5-15 MPH
ON FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page