063
FXUS65 KFGZ 060524
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1024 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAST
MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERING A
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLIER ON MONDAY WAS
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY WEATHER IMPACT OF
IMPORTANCE WILL BE NIGHTTIME PATCHY FOG RESULTING FROM VERY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. THE
COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND ENHANCED MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.
LATER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED-LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SAME, IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
SPLIT, AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING. AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH APPROACHES THE BAJA LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT,
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL THEN INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START
OUT AROUND 7,000-7,500 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LOWER TO
6,000-7,000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING, THEN 5,000-6,000 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WHICH WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST IS FOR A
GENERAL 2-5 INCHES ABOVE THE 6,000 FOOT LEVEL WITH TRACE TO 1 INCH
AMOUNTS BELOW 6,000 FEET FOR THE EVENT. STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ON THURSDAY WILL DELIVER WINDS AT 5-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH TURNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY (WITH
COLD FRONT PASSAGE). THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...FAIR WEATHER RETURNS. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
COMPLICATED WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS TIME SO
EXPECT WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BUT WEAKEN
STARTING SATURDAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 06/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/06Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
FROM KSEZ NORTH AND WEST THROUGH KFLG AND KGCN, WHERE MVFR/IFR
ARE LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 12-15Z TUES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 07/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN. -SHRA/-SHSN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BECOMING HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z
THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, SHIFTING TO THE W ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN/HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD AND WET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY, BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY DOWN TO 6000'. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST, BUT WE'LL SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND EACH DAY. WINDS
ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY 10-25 MPH, SHIFTING OUT OF NORTH
AT 10-20 MPH ON FRIDAY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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