831
FXUS65 KFGZ 060909
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
209 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TODAY. A FAST MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. FAIR AND COLD WEATHER IS
THEN FORECAST TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND THIS MORNING
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT - A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
BAJA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY, PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 7500 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN DOWN TO 7000 FEET OR SO. ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING COLDER AIR AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7000 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING, FALLING TO 5500-6500 FEET BY THURSDAY
MORNING, AND THEN 4500-5500 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MODEL DATA SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FROM MID DAY
THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW DAYS. OUR
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PACKAGE,
AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE. A GENERAL 2-5" SNOWFALL IS FORECAST
ABOVE AROUND 6000 FEET, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS AT THE HIGHER
PORTIONS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND TRACE TO
1" AMOUNTS BELOW 6000 FEET. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THESE VALUES (MAY TREND HIGHER) SO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS - ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING TRAVEL
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINTRY DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY - MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY, GRADUALLY MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, FRIDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE ONE OF OUR COLDEST DAYS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR, WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - POSSIBLY NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING ABOVE 6000 FEET ELEVATION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF
10-20 MPH ARE ALSO FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON FRIDAY,
DROPPING DAYTIME WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK RATHER COLD FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH OVERNIGHT WINDS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A
BIT IN FAVORED AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
EACH MORNING.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 06/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/06Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
FROM KSEZ NORTH AND WEST THROUGH KFLG AND KGCN, WHERE MVFR/IFR
ARE LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 12-15Z TUES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 07/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN. -SHRA/-SHSN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BECOMING HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z
THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, SHIFTING TO THE W ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN/HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD AND WET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY, BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS LOW AS 4000' POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST, BUT WILL GRADUAL WARM BEGINNING SATURDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY
FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY 10-25 MPH, SHIFTING OUT OF NORTH AT 10-20
MPH ON FRIDAY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...RR
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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