062
FXUS65 KFGZ 062038
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
138 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MANY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COLD DAYTIME HIGHS AND
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOWN TO ~6000' FEET EXPECTED. COLD TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT GRADUALLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENT EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
IF YOU'VE BEEN WAITING FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY, THEN LOOKS LIKE YOU'RE IN LUCK! THERE ARE TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT EACH ONE WILL BE BRINGING THEIR OWN COMPONENTS TO
THIS UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS ALREADY
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN ARIZONA BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BE WARMER, SO RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL KICK OFF
THE PRECIPITATION, AS SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND
7000-7500' ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEADING
INTO THURSDAY DUE TO THE SECOND DISTURBANCE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS NEXT LOW WILL BE THE MAIN PROVIDER OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL ALLOW SNOW ACCUMULATION TO REACH
DOWN TO 5500-6000'. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO CONTINUOUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SO NOW THAT WE'VE DISCUSSED THE MECHANICS OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS,
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE GOOD STUFF...SNOW AMOUNTS/TIMING. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED, THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL VASTLY BE
RAINFALL, MINUS LOCATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 7500'. A WINTERY MIX IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DOWN TO 7000', BUT WE AREN'T ANTICIPATING
ACCUMULATION DOWN TO MORE POPULATED AREAS (FLAGSTAFF, WILLIAMS,
KACHINA VILLAGE) UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. OVERALL SNOW
TOTALS ABOVE 6500' BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING
LOOK TO BE 2-6 INCHES. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM
COULD SEE 5-10" DUE TO MORE ENHANCED UPSLOPING, AND THEN AREAS
ABOVE 8000' COULD BE SEEING A FOOT OR MORE OF NEW SNOW. ALTHOUGH
THIS ISN'T THE STORM OF THE CENTURY OR ANYTHING, IT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. IF YOU HAVE A MORNING AND/OR
AFTERNOON COMMUTE, I WOULD PLAN ON GIVING YOURSELF EXTRA TIME!
ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED BETWEEN WILLIAMS AND WINONA ALONG
I-40 AND SIMILARLY ALONG I-17 BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AND MUNDS PARK
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. IT'S ALWAYS ENCOURAGED FOR PEOPLE TO CHECK
AZ511.COM FOR UPDATED ROAD CONDITIONS, AND BE SURE TO HAVE A
WINTER-WEATHER EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD, WE'LL BE LEFT WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE 6500' PROBABLY
WON'T BREAK 32 DEGREES...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP! OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO BE RATHER FRIGID, WITH MANY AREAS ALONG THE NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM REACHING SINGLE DIGITS. ALTHOUGH WE'LL SEE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT OF DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY TAKE A
FEW DAYS TO TRULY RECOVER DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
STICKS AROUND BEHIND THE PARTING STORM SYSTEMS.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 06/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR KFLG-KGCN-KPRC OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, 5-10 KTS, THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST
WINDS, 10-20 KTS, ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 07/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/18Z...CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO WORSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR VIS/CIGS DUE TO ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN AS MOSTLY -SHRA, BECOMING -SHSN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF >1" IS
LIKELY AT KGCN-KCMR-KFLG-KSOW BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM 06Z THURSDAY
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS, 15-30 KTS, ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ENHANCED ON FRIDAY, BUT FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST DUE TO FROPA FROM THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER WILL
TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN BLUSTERY WINDS,
DECREASING TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS, 10 TO 25 MPH. PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET. PLAN
ON DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST, 15 TO 25 MPH, THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM-UP GRADUALLY FOR THE WEEKEND
AS NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL, 10 TO 25 MPH, EACH DAY AND NIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...LAGUARDIA
FIRE WEATHER...LAGUARDIA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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