793
FXUS65 KFGZ 212258
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
358 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
STORE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY AND THURSDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY, UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA BEGINS TO
EJECT OFF THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INITIALLY START OUT ON THE WARMER SIDE,
LIKELY KEEPING RAIN FOR MOST WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 7500
AT THE START. AS THE SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER, TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 5500-6000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. AS COLDER
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND
EARLY SUNDAY, SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL FURTHER, AND ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MAINLY BE
FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH THEN BRINING A BETTER
SHOT TO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON IF THESE TO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE
TOGETHER, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY 0.25-0.75 INCHES
OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 6000-6500 FEET, WITH GENERALLY 2
TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCES FOR
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION, WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THESE LOCATIONS
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 6 TO 14 INCHES, WITH UPWARDS OF 2 FEET ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEHIND THE LOW, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE
AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO ARIZONA. A FEW ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY, BUT LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 22/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 23/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 23/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 25/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AROUND 21Z FRIDAY, WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THEREAFTER IN SHRA/SHSN. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS FRIDAY,
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KTS SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SET IN ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY,
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNING COOLER. RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY,
TURNING DRIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR AZZ017.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page