743
FXUS65 KFGZ 221748
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1048 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY,
BEFORE COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MILD WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN
STORE, WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SO LET'S DIVE INTO THAT.
IF YOU'VE BEEN TUNED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, YOU PROBABLY
NOTICED THE MENTION OF INCOMING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE CASE, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM TWO
SEPARATE SYSTEMS PLAYING OFF ONE ANOTHER. OUR MAIN MOISTURE SURGE
WILL BE FROM A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SECONDARY LOW PUSHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ONE THING
THAT HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED, IS THE ON-SET TIME OF PRECIPITATION. A
FEW LIGHT FLURRIES COULD START AS EARLY AS 11 AM MST ON FRIDAY,
BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT IS A MORE REALISTIC
KICK- OFF POINT FOR THIS EVENT. A WINTERY MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 6500-7000' THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT ON
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO
5000', BUT GREATEST ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS
ABOVE 7000'. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000' FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS WILL LIKELY GET UPGRADED AND SLIGHTLY SHIFTED IN TIME ON
THE NEXT SHIFT. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, OUR CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
SUPER HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, CONSIDERING SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY
TRENDED DOWNWARD WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION IS THE ONLY LOCATION WHERE THERE'S GREATER CERTAINTY IN
IMPACTFUL SNOW, BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST LIKE FLAGSTAFF ARE STILL UP
IN THE AIR ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN. OUR FORECAST
CURRENTLY SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FLAGSTAFF AREA, 2 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM, AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS. DEFINITELY WON'T BE AN EVENT TO WRITE HOME ABOUT, BUT
WE'LL TAKE ANY MOISTURE WE CAN GET!
ONCE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS PUSHES EAST, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE, AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 22/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 23/18Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SHSN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KSOW-KJTC LINE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE SW
5-15 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 23/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 25/18Z...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN AREAS OF SHRA/SHSN SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. CONDITIONS AT THE WORST SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS ARE S-SW 10-20 KTS FRIDAY, TURNING NW
10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH, ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES LARGELY BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF. RAPID DRYING FOR SUNDAY AND
DRY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY, THEN TURNING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR AZZ017.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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