666
FXUS65 KFGZ 222202
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
302 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS STARTING
FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE WAS SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
BEGINNING TO DIP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE NORTH. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW
PROVIDING MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING COLD
AIR LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE
SOME COMPARE TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WEAKER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH DIPPING TOWARD ARIZONA FROM
THE NORTH WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WEAKENING
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS, FIRST OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING AREA WIDE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ARIZONA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND EASTERN ZONES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START OUT AT 7,000-8,000
FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THEN LOWER TO 6,500-7,500 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT AND 6,000-7,000 FEET ON SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 6,500
FEET WILL SEE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT'S WAY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP AS LOW AS
4,000-4,500 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING RIGHT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END. OF COURSE, THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. WITH STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER ON SATURDAY BEHIND
TO COLD FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...LOOK FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SUNDAY AS THE MOST
RECENT TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 22/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 23/18Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SHSN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KSOW-KJTC LINE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE SW
5-15 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 23/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 25/18Z...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN AREAS OF SHRA/SHSN SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. CONDITIONS AT THE WORST SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS ARE S-SW 10-20 KTS FRIDAY, TURNING NW
10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK FOR COLDER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DELIVER GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL. RAPID DRYING ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS, THEN DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ017.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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