343
FXUS65 KFGZ 230333
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
833 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS STARTING
FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH THIS, AN AREA
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
DESERT INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, CURRENT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AROUND 20-30F, THUS ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WERE ADDED SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE OTHERWISE REMAINS
ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION /302 PM MST/
LOW PRESSURE WAS SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DIP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE
NORTH. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LOW PROVIDING MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
PROVIDING COLD AIR LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE
SOME COMPARE TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WEAKER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH DIPPING TOWARD ARIZONA FROM
THE NORTH WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WEAKENING
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS, FIRST OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING AREA WIDE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ARIZONA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND EASTERN ZONES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START OUT AT 7,000-8,000
FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THEN LOWER TO 6,500-7,500 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT AND 6,000-7,000 FEET ON SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 6,500
FEET WILL SEE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT'S WAY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP AS LOW AS
4,000-4,500 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING RIGHT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END. OF COURSE, THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. WITH STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER ON SATURDAY BEHIND
TO COLD FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...LOOK FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SUNDAY AS THE MOST
RECENT TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 23/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 24/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15Z-18Z FRIDAY, WITH MVFR DEVELOPING IN SHRA/SHSN MAINLY S/E
OF KPAN-KINW-KRQE LINE. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING
S/SW 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 24/00Z THROUGH MONDAY 26/00Z...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT-WDSPRD SHRA/SHSN THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 12-15Z SUNDAY. WINDS W/NW 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING N/NE ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK FOR COLDER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DELIVER GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL. RAPID DRYING ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS, THEN DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ017.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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