107
FXUS65 KFGZ 231113
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
413 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND THE
5000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND LASTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BRIEFLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING AS ARIZONA WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PAIR OF APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEMS. EARLY THIS MORNING, A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WHILE A COLD
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
ALREADY THIS MORNING, THE DESERTS OF SOUTHERN AZ HAVE SEEN SOME
RAINFALL THANKS TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW.
WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AZ THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
FLAGSTAFF SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE MILD
AIRMASS TODAY WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS MAINLY NEAR AND ABOVE 7000
FEET TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
AZ, WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ADVANCING TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE ADVANCING COLD AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 5500 -
6500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES
ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DROPPING SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY TO
AROUND 5000 FEET. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
INTENSE BAND OF SNOWFALL TO SET UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST NIGHTS YET THIS
SEASON EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE
HIGH COUNTRY. BUNDLE UP AND BE PREPARED FOR COLD MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING TO THE REGION. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 23/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 24/12Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z, BUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA
MAY BE NOTED SOUTH OF I-40 UNTIL THEN. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT
SHRA/SHSN TO DEVELOP CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A KPRC- KRQE LINE BEFORE EXPANDING MORE WEST AND NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR S-SW WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 24/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 26/12Z...MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY DUE TO SHRA/SHSN,
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST FORECAST AFTERWARDS. BY
12Z SUNDAY, MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GONE FROM OUR
CWA. LOOK FOR WEST THROUGH NORTH WINDS 5-15 KTS SATURDAY, BECOMING
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND TODAY, BEFORE A QUICK COOLING TREND
BEGINS ON SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM NOT ONLY WILL BRING CHILLY
DAYTIME HIGHS, BUT INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH
TODAY, BECOMING WEST THROUGH NORTH 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS FAR E. AZ, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
DAYTIME HIGHS ALSO LOOK TO WARM EACH AFTERNOON, BUT MORNING LOWS
FORECAST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL AZ.
EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR AZZ011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR AZZ017.
PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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