050
FXUS65 KFGZ 232147
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
247 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DOWN TO
AROUND THE 5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY
ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL COMBINE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING TOWARD ARIZONA FROM
THE NORTH FOR GOOD CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD, AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM 6,500-7,500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 OR 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST ABOVE
6,500 FEET BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ARIZONA. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COLDER AIR RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL
THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES IN. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM
6,000-7,000 FEET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THEN LOWER FURTHER
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 6,500 FEET WILL SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER WHITE MOUNTAINS AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
THUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET WITH STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-10 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP AS
LOW AS 4,500-5,000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING RIGHT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...LOOK FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SUNDAY AS THE MOST
RECENT TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR ACROSS
ARIZONA WILL ENSURE COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR
AVERAGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DELIVER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 23/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 24/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 00Z, LOWERING TO VFR/MVFR AFTER 00Z, AND THEN MVFR AND
MAYBE EVEN BRIEF IFR AT KFLG AFTER 06Z. SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN MOVE
IN STARTING AS SOON AS 00Z, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z.
WINDS SW 5-10KTS, GUSTING 20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 24/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 26/18Z...MVFR WITH
LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY, THEN MAINLY VFR WITH
IFR POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN VFR
AREA WIDE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/SHSN THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS, THEN CLEARING OUT AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
WINDS W-NW 5-15KTS SATURDAY, NW-N 5-10KTS SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
START AROUND 7000FT AND DROP TO NEAR 5000FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS FAVORED FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH 6-12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION TO ONLY A
TRACE TO A COUPLE INCHES IN THE WESTERN AREAS. LOCATIONS RECEIVING
RAIN SHOULD SEE 0.10-0.25" WESTERN LOCATIONS TO AROUND 0.50-0.75" IN
THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. WINDS NW-N 5-15 MPH BOTH DAYS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES 60-90% SATURDAY, DRY OUT TO 15-35% SUNDAY AS THE STORM CLEARS
OUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH DAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-30%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR AZZ011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR AZZ017.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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