537
FXUS65 KFGZ 240906
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
206 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE AROUND TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE DOWN
TO 5000 FEET. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO QUICKLY FOLLOW THE
PASSING OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS
OUR CWA (AS OF 1:15 AM MST). THIS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH
AREAS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA BEING THE MAIN LOCATION FOR INITIAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BAND, WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS FOLLOWING BEHIND. WHAT WAS
ORIGINALLY PROVIDED BY WPC FOR OUR QPF AMOUNTS FOR MORE POPULATED
AREAS ACROSS FLAGSTAFF TO PARKS, WAS TRIMMED TOO LOW BASED ON HI-
RES GUIDANCE PROJECTIONS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THERE WAS SOME
MINOR MANUAL EDITING TO OUR QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT (HOPEFULLY) MORE
ACCURATE SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT ACROSS THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.
OVERALL, THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD CONCERNING WINTER STORM EVENT.
GENERALLY, AREAS ABOVE 6500' ARE FORECAST TO SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL, LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500' IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE, AND
LOCALIZED AREAS ABOVE 8000' COULD SEE 12+ INCHES (PRIMARILY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS). IN LINE WITH THE MORE IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS, THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN/DEFIANCE PLATEAU AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000' REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAPPED UP BY TONIGHT, A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EVEN WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BEING RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF I-40 AND I-17, ROADS WILL STILL BECOME SLICK AND SNOW COVERED
AT TIMES, SO PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND ALSO MOVES THROUGH,
VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY BE POOR, SO GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF SPACE
BETWEEN YOURSELF AND THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU.
OUTSIDE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS EARLY ON SUNDAY, DRIER
AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL REVISIT OUR CWA. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED FOR OUR OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS, WHERE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA TOMORROW MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. THEN
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL. A BRIEF SHORTWAVE COULD SLIDE THROUGH ARIZONA BY THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY UNDECIDED
ABOUT THIS AND OVERALL DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 24/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 25/06Z
MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN SCT SHRA/SHSN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
S/E OF A KPAN-KINW-E91 LINE. MORE WDSPRD SHRA/SHSN DEVELOPS FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z. PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE IN +SN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN 19Z-04Z. WINDS S/SW 5-10 KTS, BECOMING W/NW THROUGH
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 25/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 27/06Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/SHSN THROUGH 08Z-10Z SUNDAY. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS NW-NE 5-15 KTS ON SUNDAY, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VRB ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
START AROUND 7000FT AND DROP TO NEAR 5000FT BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS FAVORED FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. WINDS NW-N 10-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. W-NW WINDS 5-15 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH 60-90% TODAY, THEN 15-35% SUNDAY AS THE STORM
CLEARS OUT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-30%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ017.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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