302
FXUS65 KFGZ 242105
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
205 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINTER WEATHER WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE DOWN
TO 5000 FEET. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO QUICKLY FOLLOW THE
PASSING OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
EXITING TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL SEE AS MUCH AS AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF OUR
AREA. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 12 INCHES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7,000 FEET BUT THE COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR WILL
RAPIDLY PLUNGE ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTHERLY AT 5-15 MPH GUSTING LOCALLY TO 20 MPH
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY BEHIND TO COLD FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER WHITE MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT, WITH A DRY AND COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE, LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 24/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 25/18Z
FRONTAL BAND
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 5000FT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BAND PASSES CONDITIONS WILL BE ALL ACROSS THE BOARD FROM VFR/MVFR
IN LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS LIKE KPGA, KPRC AND KSEZ TO AS LOW
AS IFR AND LIFR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS LIKE KFLG, KGCN
AND POSSIBLY KINW. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO WESTERN ZONES BY 03Z,
CENTRAL ZONES BY 06Z AND EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z. WINDS W 5-15KTS
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SWITCHING N-NE 5-15KTS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 25/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS NW-N 5-15KTS SUNDAY, E-SE 5-15KTS
MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE REGION WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD THINGS WILL DRY OUT AND REMAIN SO
FOR AWHILE. WINDS W-NW 5-15 MPH SUNDAY, E-SE 5-15 MPH MONDAY.
MINIMUM RH 15-35% SUNDAY, 15-30% MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS E-NE 5-15 MPH TUESDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-30%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ017.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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