258
FXUS65 KFGZ 031737
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1037 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTY COOLER, BUT STILL WARM AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THAT'LL BRING A BRIEF
COOL DOWN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. WITH THE SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON THURSDAY, A STRONGER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST, GRAZING
ARIZONA JUST TO THE NORTH. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH PROBABLE ALONG AND DOWNWIND
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE
TROUGH, HOWEVER THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. EVEN IF
SHOWERS DEVELOP, ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH WETTING RAINFALL
UNLIKELY.
A SECONDARY TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME A CLOSED-LOW JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN INITIALLY ON FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BOTH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO ARIZONA, LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID,
MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA LOOK TO REMAIN WEAK,
KEEPING OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM MUCH OF THE EPS, GEFS, AND CMCE. THE BEST SHOT
LOOKS TO BE ONCE THE LOW INEVITABLY EJECTS OFF THE PACIFIC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 03/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 04/18Z
VFR
CONDITION, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS W-NW 5-10KTS DAYTIME,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 04/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 06/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AFTER 18Z UNTIL
18Z FRIDAY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. WINDS SW 10-20KTS WEDNESDAY, SW 20-30KTS,
GUSTS 35-45KTS THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WINDS WEST THROUGH NORTH 5-15 MPH TODAY, BECOMING S-SW 5-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-20%.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. THE LOW ALSO BRINGS A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS SW-
W 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH THURSDAY, W-NW 10-15 MPH ON FRIDAY,
NE-E 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES AT 15-30%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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