465
FXUS65 KFGZ 040443
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
943 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. THEN, LESS
WIND, BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, WITH SOME
WARMING AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
HGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE THURSDAY. SO, EXPECT MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL, AS A RESULT.
FOR THURSDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ONCE AGAIN PUNCH INTO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH, ALTHOUGH
RATHER DEEP, HAS A DRY TRAJECTORY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE
INTO A DRY AIR MASS. SO, DESPITE DECENT FORCING AND COLDER AIR, MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE LOW CENTER, MEANING NORTHERN ARIZONA
AND/OR SOUTHERN UTAH. THE FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS
IT CROSSES OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU, WE HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT AND
INTRODUCED ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL, NOT OVERLY IMPACTFUL.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE TROUGH POSITION FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY
FORCING OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL FLURRIES OR RAIN SHOWERS, BUT THEN THE
ENERGY QUICKLY DROPS WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE WEEKEND, A CUT OFF
LOW FORMS SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, LEAVING US DRY AND UNDER ABOVE
NORMAL HGHTS. THIS CUT OFF LOW MAY EJECT BACK ACROSS ARIZONA BY DAY
7 OR 8, BUT WAY TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 04/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 05/06Z
VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 18Z.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 15-20 KTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER AND NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 05/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 07/06Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. AFTER 18Z THURSDAY UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY
LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. WINDS
BECOMING SW AT 20-30 KTS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS DAYTIME THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS A MUCH LIGHTER W
TO NW AT 5-15 KTS ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ON THURSDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY LACKING WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND AREAS ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH
BORDER COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. A
WETTING AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS S-SW 5-15 MPH
ON WEDNESDAY, SW-W 20-30 MPH, GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES 10-20% WEDNESDAY, 15-35% THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE RISING BACK UP TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALONG
THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER ON FRIDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS W-NW 10-15 MPH ON FRIDAY, NE-E 10-15 MPH
ON SATURDAY, N-NE 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES AT 15-30%
FRIDAY, 10-25% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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