641
FXUS65 KFGZ 040954
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
254 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH WINDY
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. COOL AND LESS WINDY FOR FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN
TODAY, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 10-20 MPH IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN PART
OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY,
WITH A PORTION OF IT HANGING BACK AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY, ENTERING THE NW
CORNER BY SUNRISE AND THEN PRESCOTT/FLAGSTAFF BY LATE MORNING AND
THE AZ/NM LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FAVORING AREAS FROM THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE WIND GUSTS
OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS, WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A 10-20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BUT THESE
DON'T APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THEN EJECTING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTH BY MONDAY. FOR NOW,
POPS IN OUR AREA ARE 10% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 20-40%
BY MONDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 04/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 05/06Z
VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 18Z.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 15-20 KTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER AND NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 05/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 07/06Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. AFTER 18Z THURSDAY UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY
LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. WINDS
BECOMING SW AT 20-30 KTS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS DAYTIME THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS A MUCH LIGHTER W
TO NW AT 5-15 KTS ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY,
BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES SET IN ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY, BUT WETTING RAINS
ARE UNLIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOL ON FRIDAY, THEN TURNING WARMER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER ON
FRIDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING NORTHEAST/EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ012>014-016-
017-039-040.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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