231
FXUS65 KFGZ 041722
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1022 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH WINDY
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. COOL AND LESS WINDY FOR FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN
TODAY, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 10-20 MPH IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN PART
OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY,
WITH A PORTION OF IT HANGING BACK AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY, ENTERING THE NW
CORNER BY SUNRISE AND THEN PRESCOTT/FLAGSTAFF BY LATE MORNING AND
THE AZ/NM LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FAVORING AREAS FROM THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE WIND GUSTS
OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS, WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A 10-20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BUT THESE
DON'T APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THEN EJECTING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTH BY MONDAY. FOR NOW,
POPS IN OUR AREA ARE 10% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 20-40%
BY MONDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 04/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 05/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO
20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 03Z-12Z THURSDAY, THEN
SW 10-15KTS AFTER 12-15Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 05/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 07/18Z...VFR
CONDITIONS, 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU, CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER
BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS SW-W 20-30KTS, GUSTS
TO TO 40KTS THURSDAY, W-NW 10-20KTS, GUSTS TO 30KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, NW-N 10-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS FRIDAY,
N-NE 5-10KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY,
BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES SET IN ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY, BUT WETTING RAINS
ARE UNLIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOL ON FRIDAY, THEN TURNING WARMER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER ON
FRIDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING NORTHEAST/EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ012>014-016-
017-039-040.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page