346
FXUS65 KFGZ 050441
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
941 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM, DRY AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT A BRIEF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEKEND/NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TODAY, BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE CORE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA, BUT IMPACTS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MAIN ITEMS TO NOTE WILL BE
THE COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. AND EVEN A FURTHER DIP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, WHERE MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LAND IN THE 40S AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS FOR WIND,
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT IS
VALID BETWEEN 11 AM MST AND 7 PM MST THURSDAY. ELEVATED WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, PAINTED DESERT, EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM, WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND BLACK MESA AREA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST
WINDS. THIS STORM SYSTEM ISN'T A DRY SYSTEM, BUT MUCH OF ARIZONA
WILL NOT BE THE LUCKY RECIPIENT OF PRECIPITATION. A FEW AREAS
NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION, BUT
OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 0.5".
SATURDAY ONWARD...A CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO PROJECT OFF THE
CALIFORNIA BAJA COAST BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THIS WON'T MEAN MUCH
FOR OUR CWA INITIALLY, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS ON THE WARMER
SIDE, SO RAIN IS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WE ARE EXPECTING. NOT
TO MENTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND STAY IN THAT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 05/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 06/06Z
VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS S TO SW AT 5-15 KTS WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER AND NORTHEAST OF ELEVATED TERRAIN FEATURES
THROUGH 15Z. FROM 15Z-01Z, WIDESPREAD SW WINDS AT 15-25 KTS
GUSTING TO 30-40 KTS, THEN BECOMING W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS GUSTING
TO 25 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 06/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 08/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST, 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU, CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER
BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS FRIDAY, N TO NE AT 5-10 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SET IN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO EARLY MARCH
AVERAGES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
BOTH DAYS, BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS SW 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS 35-40 MPH ON THURSDAY, BECOMING NW-N 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-35% EACH DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGE ON SATURDAY, THEN TURNING WARMER WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA BEGINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW CHANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. WINDS NE 10-20 MPH ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, TURNING TO THE SW 10-15 MPH MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ012>014-016-
017-039-040.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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