181
FXUS65 KFGZ 051948
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1248 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH NEVADA INTO
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH CEDAR CITY UT AS OF 2 AM AND HEADED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS
FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY, ENTERING
THE NW CORNER AROUND SUNRISE, PRESCOTT/FLAGSTAFF BY LATE MORNING
AND THE AZ/NM LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FAVORING AREAS FROM
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE WIND GUSTS
OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS, WITH GUSTY WINDS MAKING
FOR A CHILLY DAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOLLOWING OVER A WEEK OF
ABNORMAL WARMTH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH, THERE WILL ALSO BE
A 20-40% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN MAINLY
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/NAVAJO NATION OVERNIGHT. POPS HAVE TRENDED UP A
BIT FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST, AND WE HAVE RAISED THEM FROM
NBM VALUES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG/NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH, THOUGH
AREAS AROUND BUFFALO PASS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO. BY FRIDAY, A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WESTERN ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE.
IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
AS FAR SOUTH AS FLAGSTAFF.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THEN EJECTING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY FOR OUR AREA, WITH SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS
SATURDAY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. POPS
INCREASE TO 20-50% BY MONDAY AS THE LOW EJECTS, HIGHEST
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
ANY SNOW STAYING ABOVE 9000 FEET ELEVATION.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 05/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 06/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 FROM 18Z TO 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS SW-W 20-30KTS, GUSTS
TO 40KTS DAYTIME, W-NW 5-15KTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 06/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 08/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS, A
FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU FROM
18Z-00Z SATURDAY, OTHERWISE DRY. DAYTIME WINDS NW-N 5-15KTS
FRIDAY, N-NE 10-20KTS SATURDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
COOLER. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWARD. SLIGHT CHANCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU. WINDS SOUTHWEST/WEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNING WARMER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY, SUBSIDING TO 5-15 MPH
ON SUNDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ012>014-016-017-
039-040.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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