030
FXUS65 KFGZ 060512
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ARIZONA. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...THROUGH FRIDAY
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
IDAHO/UTAH WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLACED
AND WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED, THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TONIGHT, PUSHING OFF TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS OVERNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT A LIGHT DUSTING TO
AROUND HALF OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME PUSHING TO THE EAST AND DOESN'T CLEAR THE
STATE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LAGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU EASTWARD THROUGH FOUR
CORNERS, WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS
FLAGSTAFF.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AZ/BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM APPRECIABLY IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN IN THE
WARMER FLOW WITH SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 8500 FEET AND ABOVE. ONCE THE LOW CLEARS OUT ON
TUESDAY, WE EXPECT TO DRY OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 06/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 07/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -SHRA POSSIBLE EAST OF A KPGA-
KFLG LINE THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK
FOR W-NW 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 07/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 09/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z SUNDAY, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK
FOR N-NE WINDS 5-15 KTS SATURDAY MORNING, BECOMING E-NE 10-20 KTS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER
TERRAIN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING LIGHTER BY
18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU ON FRIDAY, DRY EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. WINDS W-NW 5-15
MPH ON FRIDAY, N-NE 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY. MIN RH VALUES 15-35%
FRIDAY, 10-30% SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TURNING WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD SEE A COUPLE
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, LASTING INTO TUESDAY BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WINDS NE 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY, SW 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY, W-NW 10-20 MPH
ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page