867
FXUS65 KFGZ 060750
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1250 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA ALONG A COLD
FRONT REMAIN OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH DAY BREAK.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WILL ALSO HINDER MUCH OF ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER, THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO KEEP SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA
BEGINS TO ELONGATE, AND BECOME A CLOSED-LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW STALLS OUT, WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
OVER ARIZONA BRINING A RETURN OF MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN AS WELL, GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED, WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOW EVENTUALLY EJECTS OFF THE PACIFIC
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
HAD THE LOW WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK, BUT THE CURRENT TREND
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH. THUS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LARGELY
REMAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WITH A SHALLOW PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL OVER ARIZONA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS A RESULT, ALONG WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZES.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 06/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 07/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -SHRA POSSIBLE EAST OF A KPGA-
KFLG LINE THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK
FOR W-NW 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 07/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 09/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z SUNDAY, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK
FOR N-NE WINDS 5-15 KTS SATURDAY MORNING, BECOMING E-NE 10-20 KTS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER
TERRAIN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING LIGHTER BY
18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
COOL. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS,
OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. WINDS NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH, BECOMING
NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TURNING WARMER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY, BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS EAST/NORTHEAST 5-15 MPH ON
SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TO 10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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