126
FXUS65 KFGZ 070448
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS BRIEFLY SET IN
ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO RETURN AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY HAVE BUILT THROUGH THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY LIMITED TO REGIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB
PLATEAU. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST AN INITIAL DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL SUPPRESS ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AT THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE VARIES ON SHOWER INTENSITY AND
WHETHER THIS WILL BE OVERCOME. OVERALL, SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN THIS SHOWERY
REGIME, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF AND THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU. ACTIVITY WILL CONCLUDE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A
CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY
BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN THING OF
NOTE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEAST BREEZES. LOCALIZED TERRAIN
ENHANCED NORTHEAST BREEZES ALONG/DOWNWIND OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
MOUNTAINS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY COULD BRING GUSTS 25-35 MPH ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RECOVER ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RETURN
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CUT-OFF LOW FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION REMAINS TO BE THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRAJECTORY IT WILL FOLLOW. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
FEATURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BRINGS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR AREAS FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD.
PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, WE LOOK TO
RETURN TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 07/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 08/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR NE WINDS 5-15 KTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT LOCALIZED GUSTS 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF A KSEZ-KFLG-KPGA.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 08/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 10/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR -SHRA AFTER 18Z MONDAY,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KPRC-KSOW LINE. BREEZY NE WINDS
DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR S-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
COOL ON SATURDAY, TURNING
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST THROUGH
EAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH EACH DAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
THEN A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH
ON MONDAY, INCREASING TO WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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