106
FXUS65 KFGZ 080545
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN
A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH EVEN WARMER WEATHER DEVELOPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A CUT-OFF LOW IS QUICKLY RETROGRADING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED INTO THE
EVENING/TOMORROW MORNING, WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SETTING IN BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE CUT-OFF LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. PW IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY/TIMING
OF THE LOW WILL BRING PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS, MOSTLY TO REGIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 08/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 09/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
NE WINDS 5-15 KTS OVER NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY NE WINDS 20-25
KTS DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 16Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 09/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 11/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY, THEN PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/CIGS.
E/NE WINDS 5-15 KTS ON SUNDAY, BECOMING S-SW ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND
5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM ON TUESDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEST WINDS AROUND
10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOMING NORTH TO WEST 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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