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FXUS65 KFGZ 081816
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1116 AM MST SUN MAR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF
MONDAY. A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPS MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AMD EVEN WARMER WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS LATER
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FULLY DEVELOPED CUT OFF LOW WILL SIT WELL SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO TODAY AND MOST OF MONDAY, BEFORE EJECTING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 500MB HGHTS NORTH OF THE LOW REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL, WE EXPECT WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
RESULT.
WHEN THE LOW EJECTS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-40. THIS
WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR (MAINLY) RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES QUICKLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 0.50" OF RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL SEE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
STRONG RIDGING REDEVELOPS AFTER TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 08/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 09/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH NE DRAINAGE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST SW
OF TERRAIN FEATURES TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 09/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 11/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 23Z MONDAY. THEN, PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA/CIGS MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR SITES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. TURNING VFR AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE S-SW 5-15
KTS ON MONDAY, BECOMING W-NW 10-20 KTS ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
SHOWERS CHANCES MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWER CHANCES PEAK MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND DECREASING ON TUESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALL TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALOFT. WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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