750
FXUS65 KFGZ 090025
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
525 PM MST SUN MAR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, THEN
CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND AFTERNOON BREEZES
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE MADE FOR A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WHILE THE WARM TEMPERATURES
AREA APT TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE, THE SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD
UP ON MONDAY, IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION, OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
LOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
MAINLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA, WHICH WILL LIMIT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO
PUSH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 5-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION,
WHICH WILL FIRST RESULT IN BUILDING CLOUD COVER, AND THEN INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE BE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
STAY MOSTLY RAIN DUE TO THE WARMER FLOW, WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS WITH AMOUNTS AROUND A FEW INCHES OR LESS. WE WILL ALSO SEE
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE REGION AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA, SO DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
0.10"-0.50" OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD...ONCE THE LOW CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION BY
LATER TUESDAY, WE SEE HEIGHTS BUILDING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS,
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION...MONDAY 09/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 10/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH NE DRAINAGE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST SW
OF TERRAIN FEATURES TONIGHT. WINDS S-SW 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z MONDAY
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 10/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 12/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 23Z MONDAY. THEN, PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA/CIGS MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR SITES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. TURNING VFR AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE W-NW 10-20
KTS TUESDAY, BECOMING N 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOWERS CHANCES BEGIN MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PEAK ON MONDAY
NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SHOWER CHANCES MOVE
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, THEN FULLY DECLINE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE 8000-8500
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY,
BECOMING WEST 10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. MINIMUM
RH RANGES 15-25% ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 10-15% ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE NORTH 5-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY, THEN WEST ON FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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