853
FXUS65 KFGZ 091034
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
334 AM MST MON MAR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
A ROBUST CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY, AS ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SCOUR IT OUT. THE LOW IS CLOSEST TO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
WHEN THE LOW EJECTS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-40. THIS
WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR (MAINLY) RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY, BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
PICTURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 0.50" OF RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT, AS
WELL AS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. HOWEVER, MANY AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL REMAIN DRY.
STRONG RIDGING REDEVELOPS AFTER TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...MONDAY 09/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 10/06Z
WINDS ARE
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THOUGH NE DRAINAGE WINDS UP TO
15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST SW OF TERRAIN FEATURES. OTHERWISE,
WINDS S-SW 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 10/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 12/06Z...PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/CIGS TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR SITES
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TURNING VFR AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING. WINDS ARE W-NW 10-20 KTS TUESDAY, BECOMING N 10-15 KTS
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN DECREASING AND SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF AND SOUTH OF I-40.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL DIP ON TUESDAY.
WINDS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY AND WESTERLY 15 TO
25 MPH TUESDAY, HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WINDS
NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WEST ON FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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